Way Beyond Blue
Welcome to this month's Hiraeth Review, our latest comment and favourite content from the last month that we think will add to, or improve, understanding of matters local, national, union-wide, or international. We hope you enjoy!
In late 1996, Welsh band Catatonia released their debut album 'Way Beyond Blue' which presaged the Welsh election result that would follow just a few months later when the constituency map was indeed way beyond blue, and entirely red, green, and yellow. And so time has come full circle and the Conservatives have no UK Parliament representation west of the border, which we of course discussed in our post-election pod.
While Conservatives over in Westminster will be quoting Cerys Matthews at Rishi Sunak and telling him "You've Got a Lot to Answer For", the battle for the future direction of the UK Party has begun while the Welsh Conservatives begin again to consider the future direction of the party in Wales, where it has never been able smash through the 'Glas' ceiling and into government. We discussed the reasons for this with historian of the party in Wales Dr Sam Blaxland during the campaign.
The new UK Labour Government has been swept into Whitehall by the UK's collective sigh of relief at the prospect of a serious, competent, and undramatic crew at the helm. However popular enthusiasm is not bursting forth from the public and many policy issues are bubbling up, not least foreign affairs (Israel-Gaza at the top, the looming US election second, future EU/EPC relations a distant third), and myriad domestic complaints on welfare, healthcare and social care. A phenomenal electoral success does not guarantee plain sailing in government.
In Wales, the Labour Government has decided on a new strategy to differentiate itself from its English neighbours. So long 'Clear Red Water'! Instead we have a game of contrast. Where Starmer et al are projecting unity, coherence, and drive, the Welsh Government is displaying public division, emnity, and a total lack of 'project' beyond not implementing policy. The woeful mishandling of ministerial sackings (a lesson that should have been learned!), the fallout of a contested leadership election result, and the very public slapdown of both Welsh Government hopes and the new FM's own leadership manifesto pledges by its sister party in London, has undermined the credibility of an already tarnished brand. Somehow the new leader of the only party to have won every election for the last 25 years is being described as 'damaged goods' by party grandees. Extraordinary times.
What next, a grim resurgence in political violence? While the deadly attack on the capitol in January 6th 2021 shocked us all, an apparent assassination attempt of a presidential candidate in 2024 is another reminder that we live in challenging times. Despite his deep unpopularity here in Europe, an attack on former (and likely future) President Trump deserves as much derision as any other.
2024 is turning out to be quite the year. We've been Equally Cursed and Blessed.
And our recommended content from elsewhere...
Starmer may be the son of a toolmaker, but he speaks for a very different class – and that’s a problem for Labour Dan Evans
Keir Starmer, the leader of the UK Labour party, faces a unique challenge. Although he hails from a working-class background, his political language and priorities align more with the middle class. This disconnect poses a problem for Labour, which traditionally represents the working class. Starmer’s father was a toolmaker, but his own experiences and education have shaped his worldview differently. His cautious approach and emphasis on competence resonate with a different demographic than the traditional Labour base.
The article suggests that Starmer’s challenge lies in bridging this gap. While he appeals to centrist voters, he risks alienating the party’s core supporters. Labour’s success hinges on finding a balance between appealing to both working-class and middle-class voters. Starmer must navigate this delicate terrain to lead the party effectively and win elections.
Can election success draw a line under Welsh Labour’s crisis?” Nye Davies
Welsh Labour, historically dominant in Wales, faces a crisis as the upcoming election approaches. Vaughan Gething, the Welsh Labour first minister, recently lost a confidence vote due to controversy surrounding a £200,000 donation he received from a company with a waste-dumping conviction. While unlikely to significantly impact Labour’s general election results, this crisis hints at deeper issues.
Labour’s dominance has allowed it to articulate the interests of various groups, emphasizing working-class values and Welsh identity. However, prolonged single-party rule can lead to complacency and corruption. Gwyn Alf Williams once criticized Labour’s oligarchic tendencies, fueled by trade union support. Now, as Labour potentially underperforms compared to the rest of the UK, Plaid Cymru aims to capitalize on this vulnerability.
The election outcome will reveal whether Welsh Labour can weather this crisis or if a new political landscape emerges. Like the SNP’s fate in Scotland, even once-dominant parties can collapse rapidly. The complex picture beneath the polling data suggests challenges for both Labour and Plaid Cymru.
The time has come to abolish the two-child limit” by Steffan Evans
The two-child limit affects families entitled to benefits who have had a third or subsequent child after 6 April 2017. Under this policy, families receive no extra support from the benefits system for their additional children born after that date. Across Wales, over 65,000 children live in families whose benefit payments are reduced due to this limit. The impact can be devastating, pushing families into poverty and affecting children’s health and education.
Research by the Child Poverty Action Group shows that abolishing the two-child limit is the most effective way to reduce child poverty. Doing so would lift 300,000 children out of poverty across the UK at a cost of £1.8 billion.
Must Everything Go? The Prospects for economic (re-)localisation in Wales, Prof Calvin Jones
Professor Calvin Jones discusses Wales’ economy and the need for re-localization. Here are the key points:
Economic Challenges in Wales:
Wales faces longstanding economic issues, often blamed on external factors like England.
However, the UK is one of the most regionally unbalanced countries in Europe, affecting Wales as well.
The concept of “development develops inequality” highlights how core actors exploit peripheral resources.
Playing to Win:
To retain value within Wales, we must play the economic game better.
Imagine Wales as a leaky bucket – money flows out through various channels.
Plugging these holes (e.g., improving procurement, retaining wages, and reducing imports) can enhance local wealth.
Opportunity for Re-Localization:
Academics can contribute to solving Wales’ problems by focusing on sustained local impact.
Wales currently relies heavily on non-local purchases (food, financial services, energy), creating leakage.
In summary, re-localization efforts can help Wales retain value, improve economic resilience, and address long-standing challenges
I sobbed into a glass of wine while my phone melted down: what it was like to lose in the Tory wipeout
Former MP for Brecon and Radnor Fay Jones writes a candid and personal account of losing ones parliamentary seat. The lead comment "don't let them see you cry" tells you all you need to know about the considerations MPs must make about optics in the job.
Fay was a panellist in our first unofficial version of the Hiraeth Pod and we wish her well for the future.
The story of law-making in Wales is one of giving new life to a medieval notion
The Senedd Research team do some great work that is rarely consumed outside the immediate locus of political Wales. This year - as you will know, the 25th anniversary of devolution - they have put together a fantastic document that charts the rebirth of Welsh Law in the democratic era and looks towards a future where the anomaly of the ‘England and Wales’ legal system is addressed.
It’s time for Wales to acknowledge the transformative power of adult learning
Adult learning plays a crucial role in Wales, addressing poverty, inequality, and overall well-being. Despite government commitments, adult education has faced challenges, with a significant decline in part-time learners in further education institutions and local authority community learning.
The reduction in funding exacerbates the issue, emphasizing the need for strategic support. The newly created Commission for Tertiary Education and Research (CTER) aims to promote lifelong learning, aligning with Wales’ ambition to become a “Second Chance Nation.” Key areas for enhancement include flexible learning, basic skills acquisition, accurate data collection, and recognition of prior learning. ColegauCymru, representing further education colleges, collaborates to drive a strategic approach to adult learning.
Cheapening Tomorrow? Revisiting HM Treasury’s Discount Rate
In the article titled “Cheapening Tomorrow? Revisiting HM Treasury’s Discount Rate,” Professor Calvin Jones critiques current discounting practices used to evaluate long-term investments. He argues that these practices systematically undervalue future benefits. Let’s delve into the details.
Discount Rate Defined: The discount rate is the interest rate used to discount future cash flows, determining their present value. It plays a crucial role in evaluating investments by assessing their viability based on the time value of money. In practice, organizations often downplay future benefits and costs using the discount rate.
The Challenge: Discounting the Future: Imagine sitting down with a child and explaining that their future dreams matter less than your ability to enjoy resources now. Despite sustainable development rhetoric, most organizations worldwide prioritize today’s well-being over the future’s. This stems from deliberately and mathematically downplaying future benefits and costs using the discount rate.
Hypothetical Example: Gwynfor Evans Community Nuclear Reactor: Cantre’r Gwaelod Borough Council considers building a nuclear reactor. The reactor costs £1.5 billion upfront and will produce £100 million worth of electricity annually for 30 years. After costless decommissioning in 2061, the total electricity value is £3 billion. However, the Treasury’s business case model uses a 3.5% discount rate, depreciating future benefits.
Proposed Solution: Rethinking Discounting Practices: Professor Jones advocates for a revised approach. Consider ecological and social factors. Use a lower discount rate to prioritize sustainability and equity. This shift could better account for future generations’ well-being and inform investment decisions.
The impact of hardship on primary schools and primary and community healthcare” by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation
This Joseph Rowntree report sheds light on the effects of severe hardship in Britain. Millions of people are going without basic essentials like food, clothing, and heating due to financial constraints. The study examines how this hardship impacts service delivery in primary schools and community healthcare settings, such as GP surgeries. Here are the key findings:
Staggering Impact:
On average, primary school staff estimate that 48% of pupils have experienced hardship since the start of the school year.
Primary and community healthcare staff estimate that 57% of patients have faced hardship in the last 12 months.
Staff report that supporting those experiencing hardship affects them emotionally and diverts resources.
Challenges in Schools:
Hardship affects classroom time and diverts resources in primary schools.
Children arrive hungry, tired, and in need of emotional support due to hardship.
Urgent Action Needed:
Any plan to improve schools or healthcare must address hardship urgently.
AI Ethics Expert: The AI Myths You SHOULDN'T Believe
Mo Gawdat speaks with Dr Rumman Chowdhyry who is a leader in applied algorithmic ethics, creating ethical AI solutions. She heads Parity Consulting and the Parity Responsible Innovation Fund and is a Responsible AI Fellow at Harvard. Previously, she led the META team at Twitter and founded the algorithmic audit platform Parity. This year, she was one of four scientists to serve as a new U.S. Science Envoy.
And that's it from this edition of our monthly newsletter. Please let us know what you think and do share the word about the podcast, the newsletter, and the Patreon.
And, as always, thank you to you all for your support. Without you the pod and everything else we do couldn't happen. Diolch o galon.
