A 'listening' First Minister is elected
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Barely weeks from the resignation of Vaughan Gething, we have a new First Minister. Eluned Morgan, member of the Senedd for Mid and West Wales, Baroness of Ely and Former MEP has been chosen by - firstly - the Welsh Labour group and subsequently the Senedd, to be our nation's leader. She immediately faces a number of challenges.
For those reflecting on the state of the Welsh Labour party post general election, it is clear that Eluned needs to embrace three core tasks. She must be governor, campaigner and conciliator.
Governor
Wales has many problems - long waiting lists, high rates of child poverty and poor PISA scores among others. Eluned must have the drive to make Welsh Government capable of tackling these problems. Party colleagues clearly believe she is someone who is capable of governing Wales, someone capable of occupying the office of the First Minister, and of satisfying the expectations of that office. She will need to persuade more than just her party colleagues to succeed.
Perhaps most importantly, to paraphrase an old Welsh Labour saying, she must also be willing to “Stand up for Wales”. She must be willing to challenge her party colleagues in the UK Government on how they treat Wales and the Welsh Government, even if that isn’t always done in the public domain.
Campaigner
The new First Minister does not only need to excel in governance, she must also be the campaign general of the democratic world’s most successful election winning machine.
The recent general election result, while a masterful demonstration of the election tactics to maximise the broken system that is first past the post, covered up a lot of concerns about the overall electoral state of the Labour party in Wales. Labour saw its lowest share of the Welsh vote in a general election for nine years and Labour lost that general election. There were also close shaves in constituencies such as Llanelli which has returned a Labour member to Westminster since 1922 (Labour won this seat by just over 1,500 votes). The picture at a Senedd level could be even more concerning for the party, with recent polls showing Labour just 4% ahead of Plaid Cymru. Add in a wholly proportionate electoral system and a Reform UK party buoyed by recent strides and focused on winning Welsh seats and you have a daunting prospect for any new leader heading into 2026.
As such, the new Welsh Labour leader must be able to pick up the reins of the campaigning element of the role. She must also act quickly to rebuild the Welsh Labour staff team, based at Transport House. The team did an excellent job during the general election, but there is currently no general secretary, and that role must be filled immediately. It is itself a leadership role within the party, and the right appointment will give the campaign arm of the party the impetus it requires to head into the next Senedd election.
Conciliator
The final and perhaps in the short term, most important characteristic of the new Welsh Labour leader is that they must be able to salve the wounds that the protracted leadership saga have caused.
Eluned must heal the divisions within the Labour group, be someone who can soothe the sentiment of the rank-and-file membership of the party and begin to build bridges across party lines in order to pass the upcoming budget and necessary reforming legislation. Thinking ahead, she must also be someone who can work in coalition with other parties. The incoming wholly proportional election system for 2026 makes it incredibly difficult for any one party to form a government. As such Wales is likely to be in a state of permanent coalition government. She must be willing to negotiate with those other parties to form the stable government Wales requires.
Finally, Eluned must be able to work with the newly empowered Welsh PLP and UK Labour Government, either to negotiate further devolution, or perhaps more pressingly additional cash for Wales’s struggling public services.
It will be no small task for the new First Minister to come anywhere close to success on all fronts, let alone one or two of them. However, with government and opposition minds gearing towards the 2026 campaigns, a clock is ticking for the listening First Minister to become one of action and delivery.
And our recommended content from elsewhere...
"I want to make it clear that I will be a listening first minister”
In what can only be claimed as a factual retelling her career, this FT piece indicates the sheer challenge Welsh politicians and Welsh politics face. Even in one of the most devo-aware publications in London the best a profile can be expected to be is essentially a Wikipedia page of facts, devoid of analysis or insight.
If our new First Minister is going to break through into the public consciousness of Wales or the wider union, then she is going to work fast and hard.
Who is the new First Minister?
Better from BBC Wales, of course.
Morgan’s political journey began at a young age. At 27, she transitioned from a career in television to become the youngest member of the European Parliament in 1994. Her political roots run deep, having grown up in a politically active household in Ely, Cardiff. Her father, Bob, was a vicar and council leader, while her mother, Elaine, was a councillor. This environment fostered her early interest in politics, with future Welsh leaders like Rhodri Morgan and Mark Drakeford being part of her family’s circle.
Educated at Cardiff’s Ysgol Glantaf and the independent Atlantic College, Morgan later attended the University of Hull. Her career has spanned various roles, including working for the energy company SSE and serving as a shadow minister for Wales in the House of Lords, where she was granted a peerage in 2011.
Morgan’s first bid for leadership in 2018 was unsuccessful, but she remained a key figure in Welsh politics. In 2021, she was appointed as the Health Minister, a role she described as the toughest in the cabinet. Her leadership style is characterized by her self-described disruptive approach, aiming to bring significant changes to Welsh politics.
Morgan’s ascent to the position of First Minister marks a significant moment in Welsh history, reflecting her long-standing commitment to public service and her ability to navigate the complexities of political life.
The Welsh Electoral Pendulum: The Multilevel Voter and Switching between Westminster and Senedd Elections
The blog post “The Multilevel Voter” from Cardiff University explores the phenomenon of multilevel voting in Wales, where voters support different parties at various levels of government. This behavior is distinct from typical voting fluctuations and has been increasingly observed in recent elections.
Using data from the 2024 Welsh Election Study, the blog highlights how voters’ preferences shift between Westminster and Senedd elections. For instance, Labour’s significant lead in Westminster elections narrows dramatically when considering Senedd voting intentions. This shift is primarily due to voters transferring their support from Labour to Plaid Cymru for Senedd elections.
The blog also discusses the implications of the new electoral system for the 2026 Senedd election, which is expected to introduce new dynamics in party competition. The study’s post-election survey, conducted in July 2024, provides insights into these voting patterns, showing a clear contrast between voting intentions at different governmental levels.
The visualization in the blog illustrates the flow of voters between the two electoral contexts, emphasizing the predictability of multilevel voting. The data reveals that this pattern has been a consistent feature throughout the devolution era, with the magnitude of voter transfer gradually increasing since 2011.
Overall, the blog underscores the complexity of voter behavior in Wales and the importance of understanding these patterns for future elections. It provides a detailed analysis of how multilevel voting shapes the political landscape, offering valuable insights for political parties and analysts alike.
Hydrogen in Wales?
The “Hydrogen in Wales 2024” research briefing provides an overview of the current state and future potential of the hydrogen sector in Wales. It highlights the role of hydrogen in decarbonizing the Welsh economy, particularly in transport, industry, heating, and energy storage.
The briefing outlines the different types of hydrogen production: green hydrogen (produced using renewable energy), grey hydrogen (produced from natural gas), and blue hydrogen (produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage). It emphasizes the need for significant expansion in hydrogen production to meet future demands.
The document also discusses the infrastructure required for hydrogen distribution and storage, noting that current facilities are limited. It stresses the importance of developing a comprehensive hydrogen network to support widespread adoption.
Policy decisions by both the Welsh and UK governments are examined, with a focus on their impact on the hydrogen sector. The briefing notes that recent policies have been supportive but highlights the need for continued investment and regulatory support to achieve ambitious hydrogen production targets.
The briefing concludes by exploring the potential benefits of hydrogen for Wales, including job creation, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. It calls for coordinated efforts between government, industry, and academia to fully realize the potential of hydrogen as a key component of Wales’ energy future.
Investigation into bullying at S4C has cost £564,000
This Newyddion article discusses an investigation into bullying and misconduct at S4C, which has cost the broadcaster £564,000. This investigation was initiated following serious concerns raised by members of the BECTU union. Capital Law, a Cardiff-based legal firm, conducted the investigation, interviewing current and former staff, as well as suppliers in the production sector. The findings were published in December 2023.
As a result of the investigation, S4C’s Chief Executive, Sian Doyle, was dismissed in November 2023. Following her dismissal, Geraint Evans and Elin Morris were appointed as interim joint Chief Executives, with Sioned William later taking over as interim Chief Executive.
Despite the challenges, S4C reported a significant increase in on-demand viewing figures, reaching their highest levels ever. The annual report highlighted a 31% increase in on-demand viewing hours compared to the previous year. Additionally, there was a 53% growth in viewing hours on YouTube, aligning with S4C’s goal to expand and maintain a younger audience.
The report also noted a 5% increase in S4C’s annual reach on television in Wales, with 1,713,000 viewers. Furthermore, there was a 9% rise in the number of Welsh speakers watching weekly, the highest figure in six years.
Guto Bebb, Chair of S4C’s Interim Unitary Board, emphasized the broadcaster’s ambitious efforts to enhance its digital reach, stating that S4C is no longer just a single channel but a multi-platform broadcaster engaging new audiences across various digital platforms.
Don't be fooled by the interest rate cut, higher rates are here to stay
A note of caution from The Guardian about over-optimism in terms of interest rates and inflation. For those hankering for a return to the pre-pandemic 'normality', post-pandemic reality has some bad news...
The grifters behind the Southport riot are only getting started – and they have a voice in parliament
Also in the Guardian, Gaby Hinsliff writes in this opinion piece on the subject of the recent race riots in England and Northern Ireland and the grift exploiting the rifts in contemporary society.
For all of the commentator admonishment of Nigel Farage, the reality is that the economic and cultural conditions in the UK have opened a vector or a mobilising right wing populism but it is equally exposed to the output of the digital bro-ligarchy of trolls, frauds, and grifters online who are happy to stoke the flames of division for clicks and cash.
Although there might be some back-slapping in Wales and Scotland that we have remained unaffected by rioting, it is safe to say that none of the nations of the UK union are immune to these forces and how we work with our citizens and each other to create a less fertile ground for violence and conspiracy is a question no-one really has an answer to... yet.
The best Eisteddfod ever
It has been an extraordinary week in Pontypridd, with the National Eisteddfod coming to Rhondda Cynon Taf. You don't just have to take the work of Wales's media commentators alone, Tudur Owen has mischievously labelled this the best Eisteddfod ever.
With the Maes largely centred in the town's central Ynysangharad Park, Maes B a little further up the Taff Trail, and the valleys town alive with activities in its famous Clwb y Bont, National Museum, and independent businesses, it has been a revelation for visitors and locals alike. Even the oft-maligned Transport for Wales have excelled with their provision of public transport to the town.
And to cap it all , the Eisteddfod crown was awarded to Gwynfor Dafydd, son of much-admired Welsh language ambassador Helen Prosser and actor Danny Grehan.
In defence of the American politics obsessive
The New Statesman is a real gem and John Ellidge's personal piece here chimes with us at the Hiraeth Pod as we gear up for the next US Presidential Election with a combination of fear, excitement, and disgust. Somewhere between a celebration, a carnival, and a car crash, it's almost impossible for a UK-based politics obsessive to cast more than a glance at the gaudy, grizzly contest for the biggest office in the world, hoping for more West Wing than Shameless.
Friends and listeners of the pod will remember that we did an all-nighter with guests in Wales and America last time, and it was more a sense of relief that crystallised the result rather than joy. Who knows what will happen this year...
Four Nations united by difference
With three First Ministers and a UK Election already under our belt for the first half of 2024, the Hiraeth Pod team closed the feed for the summer with this really in-depth analysis of the UK's four political nations and how each voted in the 2024 UK election.
The striking thing about these podcasts is not only how different the four nations are politically, but how they are all largely ignorant of each others' internal dialogue. While the public service broadcasters are still trying to adapt their news coverage to the increasingly federal nature of the 'awesome foursome', we're incredibly proud to be pioneering this level of analysis.
And that's it from this edition of our monthly newsletter. Please let us know what you think and do share the word about the podcast, the newsletter, and the Patreon.
