From Yma O Hyd to ‘Beth nesaf?’
In a break with historical precedent, the Ides of March have been cause for influential senators (or Seneddwyr) to celebrate their leaders rather than attack them. Mark Drakeford’s tenure as Welsh Labour leader has ended to much acclaim from party colleagues, despite a rather bumpy farewell tour, which has created unwelcome headlines for ‘Bampi Cymru’ in relation to the UK Covid Inquiry and A & E departments.
And so it is a new era for Welsh Labour, the Senedd, and devolution within the United Kingdom. Vaughan Gething MS emerged victorious in the competition with Jeremy Miles MS to win the party leadership. Wales becomes the first European country to have a black leader while also, for the first time, the Welsh First Minister will not be able to speak both of the nation’s official languages. With plentiful problems to address, the new FM will be hoping to shake off the questions of judgement which tarred his campaign and gather a new cabinet of ministers around him to meet these challenges. We expect new faces in government to reflect the baton’s passing to a ‘devolution generation’ of parliamentarians.
With ambitions to finally address the gaping holes in the Welsh devolution settlement (policing, justice, rail, and Crown Estate) and tackle the huge problems of delivery of public services, the challenge will be huge for someone who aspired to this role for years. With knowledge that a majority of his party group backed his opponent and that his party colleagues in London are rigidly focussed on de-risking the party’s platform ahead of the looming union-wide general election, it may be a tough start in post. So, as he stated in his speech, it’s time to move on from Yma O Hyd (still here) to asking ‘beth nesaf’ (what next) for Vaughan Gething.
The election of Vaughan Gething is too big for even the Guardian to avoid
The Guardian, long-time favourite news source for Labour-leaning voters, has long held a somewhat dismissive stance to events in Wales, not even having a dedicated correspondent, instead requiring Steven Morris to cover Wales and the English West. (The less said about Simon Jenkins’s contributions, the better.)
And so the news of new leadership in Welsh Labour makes the top story today
“Today, we turn a page in the book of our nation’s history. A history we write together. Not just because I have the honour of becoming the first black leader in any European country – but because the generational dial has jumped too.”
If we tolerate this; Wales in the world economy
Friend of the pod, Business School Professor, and restless champion for a better Wales Calvin Jones writes a St David's Day provocation for Afallen. The economic woes of post-industrial Wales are well-known. The challenge is always more about what we are going to do about them.
Calvin's piece is well worth the reading time and begins with this two-footed tackle of a quote from the legendary Gwyn Alf Williams:
“The original marginality, of course, was that of poverty, a cramped and pinched community of small commodity producers unable to generate capital … its most vivid symptoms the great droves of skinny cattle and skinny people tramping into England to be fattened.”
Future Proofing Welsh Public Services
The Auditor General for Wales has called for a visionary approach to public services in Wales to transition from short-term crisis management to long-term sustainability.
Key areas highlighted in the context of the Welsh Government's draft budget for 2024-25 include reducing costs and restoring public confidence through better governance, combating fraud and error, ensuring efficient use of resources, tackling workforce challenges, embracing digital transformation, prioritising prevention over reactive measures, and rigorously evaluating decisions for value for money.
The budget, amounting to £26.4 billion, represents a modest increase, with the NHS being the largest recipient. Despite inflationary pressures and increased demands exacerbated by the pandemic, the sustainability and affordability of current services are under scrutiny. The Auditor General, stresses the importance of addressing these long-term challenges to foster public trust and achieve sustainable change.
Worried and waiting: A review of paediatric waiting times in Wales 2024
This bilingual report, provides an analysis of ‘paediatric pathway’ waiting times data in Wales from 2016-2023, with a spotlight on the last year.
The report contains recommendations for the Welsh Government, Health Boards and Health Education and Improvement Wales, which if fulfilled, will support the child health workforce to provide safe, timely and effective care.
There is limited published data in Wales relating to child’s health. From the data above, it’s shown that we cannot disaggregate the data by paediatric speciality, whereas you can for adults. This means we cannot understand the full pressures on paediatric services and what specialities are under particular strain.
Steelcast: Global CEO and MD of Tata Steel, TV Narendran
Nobody should comment on the Tata Steel Port Talbot without first watching this excellent interview of CEO TV Narendran by Tim Rutter. For a 'corporate' piece I found it very informative - and gives a very honest insight into Tata's position (whether you agree with its actions or not).
A Recipe for Recession: What Does the Bank of England Think It's Doing?
Richard Murphy and Danny Blanchflower examine the link between interest rates, inflation and recession, and ask is the Bank of England either ignorant or in the grip of dangerous groupthink?
it is absurd because wages really are way behind both inflation and productivity growth in many parts of the economy at this moment and increasing them is essential if we are to get out of the economic mess we are in and avoid a deep recession.
How Sustainable is Wales's Sustainable Farming Scheme?
There has been much written and said about the new farm payment programment being proposed by the Welsh Government.
This piece from Alex Phillips writing for the Institute for Welsh Affairs is both an accessible and dispassionate appraisal of why it is such a tricky policy to get right.
It is likely that the search for profitability will lead to the further intensification of the most productive parts of Wales at ever greater environmental cost.
1974 Explained: The Year That Almost Crushed Britain
A cracking mini-series of pods from the Rest is History team, looking at the political events of 1974, of which we are obviously marking the half-century this year.
Britain in the early 1970’s was a state in crisis, and by 1974, things had never seemed bleaker. Held hostage by the Trade Unions, British industry was flailing. England’s sporting record was atrocious, the economy was tanking and the prospect of a miners’ strike loomed large. Violence was surging in Northern Ireland, as the IRA escalated its bombing campaigns, and the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War would send oil prices soaring, with the miners on the verge on plunging Britain into darkness.
By the end of the year, the British people had voted in two general elections, had a three-day week enforced on them, and the Conservative party were on the cusp of electing their first female leader…
To what extent is Wales’ economy impacted by young people leaving Wales?
Former Secretary of State for Wales Stephen Crabb continues to steer the UK Parliament's Welsh Affairs Committee in interesting directions that explore the real questions and difficulties facing Welsh public policy. The Committee has always struggle for quality membership as many of the - already small - pool of MPs with constituencies in Wales seek more consequential appointments.
However, under Crabb, the committee has melded its talents to pursue interesting questions with rigour and credibility. One inquiry to watch is this one, where the Committee is gathering evidence to examine the Impact of population change in Wales, focusing on the economic impact of younger people leaving the nation.
Ministerial Leadership - Practice, Performance, and Power
It is a rare thing for an ex-Welsh Government Minister to develop a public profile in the world of government and governance. Leighton Andrews - former Senedd member, minister, and not entirely an uncontroversial figure - has consistently championed better government, advocated for the Nolan principles, and bemoaned the degradation of norms and standards in UK Governments speficifically since 2017.
This event is a launch for his new book, drawn on a series of post-ministerial lectures hosted by the Institute for Government and argues that the relationship between ministers and civil servants has changed significantly in recent decades, as ministers have placed greater emphasis on delivery and implementation since the New Labour years. Experience in government led to Labour ministers internalising the delivery agenda, and this focus was retained in the Coalition government of 2010-15 and by the Conservative governments at least until 2017. The twin pressures of Brexit and Covid then knocked things off course.
Former ministers identified a lack of front-line delivery experience amongst senior civil servants. There are criticisms of the way in which the civil service manages projects. Former ministers argue that delivery and policy cannot be separated. This cuts across the separation of roles between ministers and civil servants.
And that's it from the third, revamped, edition of our monthly newsletter. Please let us know what you think and do share the word about the podcast, the newsletter, and the Patreon. We have some great stuff in store for 2024!
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Vaughan Gething Photo (c) Comisiwn y Senedd / Senedd Commission 2024
