February 2024 - a poor month for Political Comms

This has been a poor month for political communication. By now I am sure you have all seen the Prime Minister take his very memeable white board for a spin to explain complicated economics badly. The news that the UK has entered recession will of course come to some relief to the poor comms professional who inevitably warned the PM about what happens when you let a politician be filmed with a literal blank canvas.

While in Wales as our contest to become the next First Minister crawls on without much excitement. A battle over a Union’s nomination is essentially the peak of an election that has gone without much scrutiny or any excitement as both candidates fail to differentiate themselves from the other. Either way it looks like Vaughan Gething is pulling into the lead.

If we take a trip to the United States (probably best to do that now before November) both the leading candidates in that race make blunder after blunder as they contest the election between the two oldest candidates since they faced each other four years ago. No matter how badly you think the choices facing the UK or Wales will be in the next 12 months, remember it could always be worse.

Can Welsh Government Really Address Child Poverty?
The Wales children's commissioner and children's rights groups expressed disappointment with the Welsh Government's poverty  plan, citing a lack of specified targets. While the government aims to optimise family incomes and minimise expenses, Commissioner Rocio Cifuentes and charities found the strategy deficient in concrete goals.

With 28% of Welsh children living in relative poverty, defined as households earning less than 60% of the UK's median income (equating to less than £300 weekly after housing costs), the absence of clear objectives in the plan raised concerns. Despite earlier goals to eradicate child poverty by 2020 being abandoned, the new strategy vows to establish stringent monitoring mechanisms for tracking progress against poverty indicators.

The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (and influencing the next Labour manifesto)
The commission presented 10 recommendations for immediate implementation, regardless of Wales' long-term trajectory. Three suggestions aimed at enhancing Welsh democracy, such as fostering democratic innovation, involving citizens in drafting governance principles, and evaluating proposed reforms to the Senedd. The remaining seven focused on fortifying devolution, including calls for UK legislation to strengthen intergovernmental relations, easing constraints on Welsh budget management, expanding devolved roles in broadcasting and energy policy, and transferring responsibility for justice, policing, and rail services.

Although existing Welsh Labour policy, the two leadership candidates have been quick to restate their commitment to the devolution of some of issues but whether they can persuade their parliamentary colleagues in Westminster to include it in the next manifesto is another matter. Given the vocal opposition from both the Deputy Leader of Welsh Labour itself, and the Shadow Secretary of State for Wales, it will be a test of either Vaughan Gething’s or Jeremy Miles’s leadership to see how persuasive they can be within their own party.

Steeling ourselves for the worst
Tata Steel and the UK government reached agreement on an investment proposal that will change UK steel making for good.With a capital cost of £1.25 billion, including a substantial grant from the UK government, the project focuses on implementing state-of-the-art Electric Arc Furnace steelmaking at the Port Talbot site.

This move aims to secure the future of steelmaking in the UK while ushering in a sustainable, green technology-based industrial ecosystem in South Wales. The investment, coupled with strategic restructuring, promises to significantly reduce emissions, maintain steel production, but with a vastly reduced workforce.

And things just keep getting more worrying for Welsh steelworkers as Spanish-owned company Celsa is also considering closure of some of its operations in the UK. 

Vaughan Gething MS - More Powers for Wales?
Vaughan Gething has come out fighting in his bid to be FM championing the cause of devolution, citing fairness and empowerment of communities as his core principles. He advocates for more decision-making power to be vested in Wales, highlighting the importance of tailored approaches to issues such as language, culture, industry, and sport.

He proposes an agenda that includes seeking greater powers for the Senedd, starting with the devolution of the Crown Estate, with a focus on leveraging green energy to combat poverty and climate change. Devolution, or rather preference for more devolution, is considered by many to be the dividing line between the two candidates, but articles such as this show Vaughan is acutely aware of this and has taken steps to address those concerns.

Positive news for UK regional economies - except Wales, of course
The UK may have entered a technical recession in the second half of 2023, but the UK’s regional economies have show signs of positivity, with business activity growth rising in 10 of the 12 regions and nations.
While Wales is not the worst performing territory - that being the English North East - signs of upturn are challenging to find.

Scotland leading the way in the creation of a ‘Wellbeing Economy’
Scotland is the first national government to adopt an explicit community wealth building approach in the UK. Its states this  central to its plans for a ‘wellbeing economy’. CLES has more detail here. The ‘Higgins report’, which analysed Scotland’s economic prospects in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, also highlighted the need for community wealth building.

The Welsh Government centres community wealth building in its procurement strategy. This involves ensuring that opportunities for local suppliers are embedded in tenders put out by public service boards and key local institutions, but is this really good enough for local communities?

Welsh Labour isn’t working
Cardiff-based academic Prof. Thomas Prosser’s Substack ‘The Path Not Taken’ takes a look towards the single-party dominance of Labour in Wales and the continued ineffectiveness of the opposition.

In what could be interpreted a plea for better quality government, even this Labour-leaning professor hopefully suggests that “by the Senedd elections of 2026, the Welsh electorate may be in the mood for change”

The power of the future?
Green Hydrogen can be perceived as a wonder fuel, a way to create and store energy with only water as an output. Wales has plentiful opportunities to create hydrogen from renewable energy sources but what is the reality for its use here?

The question of industrial and commercial support and investment in the hydrogen economy is very much an open one, and with champions touting its potential without having much traction in terms of delivery, the Guardian asks ‘will hydrogen overtake batteries in the race for zero emission vehicles?’.

Jon Stewart tackles the Biden Trump rematch that nobody wants
We are less than 6 months away from an election to decide the leader of the free world (sic.) but already serious concerns are being raised about the suitability of both candidates, especially given President Biden’s numerous lapses in verbal functioning. Jon Stewart is back as host of the Daily show on Monday nights and this section highlights the need for even greater scrutiny of Biden in the face of the potential return of Trump to the Oval office.

Reading across to the UK, even in the face of an underperforming Conservative government, it is essential to scrutinise what Keir Starmer’s premiership could mean for the UK and for Wales.

YesCymru, an organisation falling apart
Post-2016, the sudden rise of YesCymru as a campaigning organisation that became a popular convening force, bringing together new and old supporters of Welsh independence, caused a huge shift in the mainstreaming of independence within the national discourse.
However, the meteoric rise has been succeeded by a steep decline, not just in membership but in credibility as successive failures of governance from its board of directors have left its reputation badly tarnished.

Emily Price of Nation Cymru has covered the stories extensively and is the go-to source for the latest:

And that's it from the secod, revampaed edition of our monthly newsletter. Please let us know what you think and do share the word about the podcast, the newsletter, and the Patreon. We have some great stuff in store for 2024!

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