Where next for Indy Wales?
Ceri Davies
Many of those supporting or interested in independence for Wales will march through Barry on April 26th. I’ll be there as I retain that interest, and I see the movement as a wider piece about those who care for Wales, wanting to improve the nation. I have written this piece ahead of that event with that approach in mind and to highlight areas I struggle with and where I think the focus needs to move to.
Up front, I can’t see Wales achieving independence in the vein that is so often quoted to me, Malta, Iceland or the Baltic States. In terms of size, population and wealth there is no question we tick the boxes, but for me our geography and history are so different to those nations. Our entwining with our nearest neighbour is so entrenched that any unravelling will make Brexit look like child’s play.
I mention Brexit as that needs to be our bell weather example of “taking back control”. After 50 years of laws, regulations and trade agreements the integration of the UK into the EU state was entrenched. Its unravelling, even for the most ardent Brexiter, is nothing short of a nightmare and we are still working it through at huge cost some nine years later. It is fresh for me as I have just finished a contract working on The Windsor Framework. For much of the UK this post-Brexit agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union is hardly known about yet is a major aspect designed to ease trade frictions between Great Britain and Northern Ireland while maintaining Northern Ireland's access to the EU's single market.
Not pulling any punches, it is a nightmare. You can pick and choose whose opinions you listen to on it but without doubt it is costing the UK a fortune and all those caught up in any aspect of it have additional issues to contend with. Me? I took through the legislation that means your pet will need a document to holiday in Northern Ireland and even that is better than the Northern Ireland Protocol that came before!
Again, it’s not the same as Wales but that’s part of the point, nowhere is. But it gives an example of close to home, tangible issues that a future Indy Wales will have to address. As someone from the border town of Hay this is a very real-world issue that all those who used to use phrases like “alternative arrangements” and “technical solutions” never really understood. What does a border look like in a future Wales? It’s very rarely touched on and even the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales barely looked at this most vital of issues but clearly highlighted the need for careful planning to manage the border with England, ensuring minimal disruption to trade and daily life. That I would agree with wholeheartedly, I cannot see any future in which Wales has nothing but an open border with England.
But what does an ‘open border’ therefore mean? It means that for most practical purposes Wales adopts the same approaches England has in many areas of regulation and crucially retains the UK’s own version of the four freedoms: Freedom of goods, people, services, and capital. The idea of Wales joining any EU institution or the EU itself again without England is for the birds. What Northern Ireland is undergoing, while the wider UK is still struggling, is a glaring example of how this entwinement is so difficult to undo. Would anyone want to apply for a pet document to take a pet from Wrecsam to Chester or would family from England visit if such a document was needed? It sounds mad, doesn’t it?
I have taken a simplistic view I know, but it is these aspects that need to be far more at the forefront of the speeches and promises that are made at these events. What does it mean to be independent in many of these practical terms – who will regulate our medicines, our food safety, our water quality and what happens when we see divergence in these areas.
Even now with the devolution we have we are seeing divergence in various areas and only time will tell if this is good or bad. My experience in areas where training approaches in medicine and education diverge are increasingly problematic. With the giant market we have next door, and the opportunities presented therein and indeed those we wish to attract to Wales, the systems we utilise need to be a similar and streamlined as possible. Even during covid I know people who were prevented from working in Wales by Welsh rules, crossed the border daily and worked in England. With such a fluid border with so many East-West links the idea of any significant barrier went with the end of Sunday licensing laws. The large Welsh population so close to the border just makes anything other than close to what we have now untenable.
So, what am I asking if I don’t see full independence as the future?
Like our joining of the EU and the slow implementation of treaties I see that as an approach to push the constitutional process forward. The recommendations of the Thomas Commission (2019) should be at the forefront of our current ask in Barry on the 26th. The commission proposed that justice policy and funding should be devolved to the Welsh Government. That for me is achievable and can be clearly presented to a public so often not interested in Wesh political life and would bring us into line with Scotland, Northern Ireland and England. The Crown Estate for me is a given! And if needed these further powers should be accompanied by a referendum – referendums that were absent in our EU integration. As The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales made clear strengthening Welsh democracy is key in anything we do.
I have been at several events recently when these issues have come up. Paul Silk at the New.Wales launch at the Senedd summed it up when he said, “There is always England”. There is always England, and it offers a huge deal. It’s wonderful place, with wonderful people and opportunities and one of the planet’s global cities is only a few hours away. We cannot change our geography or history that have entwined us so closely over generations and we need to look to take advantage far more, rather than seeing it as a constant problem. What we need is to make the most of what we do, as was also said at the New.Wales event by Leanne Wood, “what is the point of independence if it doesn’t improve our communities?”
And that is where I am. Our constitutional framework really doesn’t matter hugely at the on the ground level in our communities. A lot of people like to talk about it all, me included, but the reality on the ground is how we live work and act. Wales is part of the global capitalist norm and independent or not we are at the mercy of the trade winds that are currently at hurricane level. Where we do have power is what we do, how we choose to live, act and spend? I know of several local independent coffee shops that are closing in Cardiff, yet we have huge numbers of multinational chains that suck wealth out of Wales. They are employers yes, but do they add the value of using local suppliers, keeping profit in communities or even paying UK taxes? This is simple, on the ground, economics. Our community wealth needs to be a focus whether Indy or not. I’m not looking for a Trumpian approach, I want Welsh business to thrive and expand too and not suggesting any form of protectionism, but where we can do things ourselves, we must. We need to own equity stakes, cooperatives. Ownership is key to a sustainable economy.
In the speeches in Barry on the 26thI hope to hear someone talk far more about doing it for ourselves now, be it our education, our economy or our environment. There is a lot that we can do, and it is time these aspects on community improvement, community wealth building and community engagement became far more prominent in the wider argument about how to improve Wales than the far more nebulous Indy Wales narrative.
Ceri Davies is a public policy and public affairs professional based in Wales
