The White House turns orange, again
Welcome to this month's Hiraeth Review, our latest comment and favourite content from the last month that we think will add to, or improve, understanding of matters local, national, union-wide, or international. We hope you enjoy!
What a month it has been - two months, if we’re honest - with our live event production with Lee Waters and a full podcast schedule (Net Zero, Welsh Media, and the Welsh Not) overshadowing October's newsletter! But in the time since, the political landscape has undergone significant transformation with the UK Gov budget, the recent US election, and a new Conservative leadership.
We should also formally welcome two great Welsh politics podcasts and encourage you to listen to them and subscribe:
- Robin Morgan and Mel Owen take on serious news from serious journalist Will Hayward with their comedian hats on in 'For Wales, See Wales': https://open.spotify.com/show/36K7BSmczcZywwqmGT8ALq
- And Lee Waters MS (seen at our recent event in Porters, Cardiff, above) has launched truly insightful podcast about the experience and challenges of working inside Welsh Government on The Fifth Floor of Tŷ Hywel: https://open.spotify.com/show/0cwgtqcgMcMzvyAF13rNeH
The UK election has been a focal point of national and international attention, with its outcomes poised to steer the direction of government policies and priorities for the next five years. Some of the most recent steering has been interesting to say the least - who could have predicted a Labour Prime Minister proposing Blackrock private equity as a leading partner?! It’s fair to say UK Labour’s honeymoon period was not long-lived at all as the recent farmer’s protests have merely added to a growing chorus of discontent.
One of the most pressing concerns in the aftermath of the election is the state of the UK economy. The budget, unveiled by the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, serves as a blueprint for the government's fiscal strategy, outlining measures to stimulate growth, manage public finances, and address economic disparities. The budget reflects the government's response to the challenges posed by inflation, unemployment, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Key highlights include tax reforms, investment in infrastructure, and support for small businesses, all aimed at fostering a resilient and sustainable economy. The rise in employers' national insurance and the inheritance tax changes on the farming community have, however, dominated the news since. Few, it seems, are totally happy with Labour's first budget in 14 years. Our friends over in the Wales Governance Centre have done the only significant analysis of what the budget means for Wales.
As we explore the multifaceted nature of UK politics, the budget, and the election, it is essential to consider the broader context of global economic trends and geopolitical developments. The UK's relationship with the European Union, trade partnerships, and international diplomacy are all factors that shape the UK's political and economic trajectory. The evolving landscape of global politics presents both opportunities and challenges for the UK, what will a second Trump term mean for the UK and the world? Are we about to see a period of isolationism return for the States, and will Trump’s success be a template for Reform in the UK? The announcement of upcoming elections in Ireland and Germany further underscores the dynamic and interconnected international political landscapes and how difficult it will be for the post-Brexit UK to navigate a course between the US, the EU, and the BRICS states.
And our recommended content from elsewhere...
Election takeaways: Trump’s decisive victory in a deeply divided nation
Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in the 2024 US presidential election, marks his return to the White House, the first since Grosvenor Cleveland to returned to power after a losing a contest.
Trump secured a decisive victory over Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee and sitting Vice President by reclaiming key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Harris, who aimed to become the first woman president, conceded the election unlike Trump four years earlier.
Trump's campaign was marked by significant challenges, including multiple indictments, a criminal conviction, and two assassination attempts, yet he managed to galvanise his base and secure enough electoral votes. The election highlighted deep divisions within the nation, with Trump promising to address economic and social issues that resonated with many voters. Harris's campaign, despite a strong start and significant fundraising, struggled to maintain momentum and failed to deliver a compelling message on critical issues. The election results underscore the ongoing polarization in American politics and set the stage for Trump's second term in office.
What America can expect after Donald Trump’s election
Donald Trump's return to the White House promises significant changes across various policy areas. His administration is expected to focus on immigration, with plans to seal the southern border, implement mass deportations, and end policies like "catch and release". Trump also aims to impose sweeping new tariffs on imports and freeze climate-related regulations. His agenda includes remaking federal health agencies and introducing ideological changes in the education system including abolishment of the federal government’s department for education.
Additionally, Trump plans to seize assets from criminal gangs and drug cartels to compensate victims of violent crime. His administration will likely move faster and more ambitiously than his first term, leveraging his experience to navigate complex agencies and limits of conventional process. The election results underscore the ongoing polarisation in American politics and set the stage for an eventful second term in office.
What happened in July’s UK Election in Wales?
Well, in short, UK Labour won and won big. There’s no other way of describing a victory as comprehensive as taking 27 of the 32 available seats as anything other than a huge success.
So it may surprise you to know that Labour’s vote share actually fell in 2024 versus the UK election in 2019, the only country on Britain where this happened.
First past the post is, as the saying goes, a hell of a drug and it provides a very clear result on the surface. Underneath there are many interesting factors at play for all the major parties, as Dr Jac Larner explains in this briefing session.
Wales’s 20mph speed limit saves lives and money. So why has it become a culture-war battlefield?
Will Hayward here discusses the introduction of a 20mph speed limit in Wales, which aims to reduce road accidents and save lives.
Despite its potential benefits, the policy has become a contentious issue, with some viewing it as an unnecessary restriction on personal freedom. Critics argue that it disrupts daily life, increases travel times, and imposes additional costs on businesses. A petition against the policy has garnered nearly 470,000 signatures, reflecting widespread opposition. Despite the backlash, proponents emphasize the long-term benefits, including improved safety and quality of life in residential areas.
The debate highlights the broader cultural and political divides in Wales, with the speed limit becoming a symbol of the tension between public health measures and individual liberties.
How private equity swallowed up the UK – and why it’s unsettling regulators
This from City A.M. discusses the significant growth of private equity in the UK over the past decade and its implications.
Private equity firms have acquired numerous British businesses, including well-known names like Morrisons, Pret A Manger, and Asda. This trend peaked in 2021 with over 1,900 deals worth £152 billion. Despite a slowdown due to rising interest rates, the sector remains influential, with nearly £50 billion in transactions in the first half of 2024. The article highlights that private equity-backed firms now employ over two million people in the UK, accounting for about 10% of the private sector workforce. These firms also represent around 5% of the UK’s private sector revenue and 15% of corporate debt. The concentration of private equity is particularly notable in London and Yorkshire.
Regulators and economists are concerned about the systemic risks posed by the dominance of private equity. The Bank of England has warned that the sector’s concentration in specific regions and industries could make the economy vulnerable to shocks. However, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has taken a more cautious approach, suggesting that over-regulation could stifle the sector’s growth. The article underscores the growing influence of private equity in the UK economy and the ongoing debate among regulators about how to manage its risks without hindering its benefits.
Faster Imagining Wales, Faster Growth” by Calvin Jones for Afallen
Prof. Calvin Jones writes his latest article for Afallen and explores strategies to accelerate economic growth in Wales by fostering innovation and leveraging local resources. He argues that Wales can achieve sustainable economic development by embracing creative thinking and entrepreneurship, tailored to its unique strengths and challenges.
The article emphasizes the importance of local solutions to economic issues, suggesting that communities should be at the forefront of driving growth. By tapping into local talent and resources, Wales can create a more resilient and dynamic economy. This approach involves not only supporting existing businesses but also encouraging new ventures and startups that can bring fresh ideas and opportunities to the region.
A key point in the article is the role of community involvement. It highlights how local communities can contribute to economic growth by participating in decision-making processes and supporting local initiatives. This grassroots involvement ensures that economic strategies are aligned with the needs and aspirations of the people they are meant to benefit.
In summary, “Faster Imagining Wales, Faster Growth” advocates for a holistic and locally-driven approach to economic development. By harnessing the unique strengths of Wales and fostering a culture of innovation, the article envisions a future where Wales can achieve faster and more sustainable economic growth.
“Rolling back on childcare commitments?” by Steffan Evans
The Bevan Foundation here examines recent developments in Welsh Government childcare policies and their potential impact on families. The piece, written by Steffan Evans, highlights concerns that the Welsh Government may be retreating from its previous commitments to expand childcare support.
Initially, the Welsh Government, in collaboration with Plaid Cymru, had pledged to extend free childcare to all two-year-olds as part of their Co-operation Agreement. This expansion was to be implemented through the Flying Start programme, which provides free, part-time childcare to children in Wales’ most deprived communities. The phased rollout began in September 2022, with the final phase intended to cover all two-year-olds by April 2025.
However, recent government documents suggest a potential rollback on these commitments, raising alarms about the future of childcare support. The article underscores the critical role of affordable, quality childcare in reducing poverty and inequality. It points out that current provisions, while helpful, are insufficient, particularly for younger children and working parents who struggle to cover childcare costs.
In summary, the article calls for the Welsh Government to uphold its childcare commitments to ensure that all children in Wales have access to the support they need. It stresses that maintaining and expanding these provisions is crucial for fostering equality and supporting working families across the country.
See also the Children’s Commissioner, Rocio Cifuentes, writing forcefully about the Welsh Government’s failure to address rates of child poverty and other issues in Nation Cymru.
UK Labour's reset?
The article from Cavendish discusses Labour's efforts to reset and restructure following their first 100 days in power.
Key initiatives include establishing Great British Energy, ending the Rwanda plan, and building 1.5 million new homes. Despite early successes, internal briefings and negative media coverage have overshadowed their achievements.
The article highlights the importance of a strong political narrative and message discipline, which Labour aims to regain by reshuffling their top team and focusing on strategic media efforts.
Will The U.K. Budget 2024 Boost Economic Growth?
The budget introduces several measures aimed at boosting the economy, including tax changes, increased public spending, and support for businesses. However, there are concerns about the effectiveness of these measures, given the current economic challenges such as high inflation and slow growth.
The article highlights the importance of government policies in instilling confidence and encouraging investment. It also notes that while the budget aims to address immediate economic issues, long-term growth will depend on sustained efforts and strategic planning.
Too Much Drama Starmer?
The Huffington Post discusses the challenges faced by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer during his first 100 days in office.
His tenure has been marked by a series of controversies, including policy missteps and a scandal involving gifts and freebies. To address these issues, Starmer has initiated a shake-up in his administration, including the dismissal of his Chief of Staff, Sue Gray, and the appointment of Morgan McSweeney, who led Labour's successful election campaign.
The article highlights the difficulties Starmer faces in stabilizing his government and regaining public trust, emphasizing the need for a clear policy direction and effective leadership.
And that's it from this edition of our monthly newsletter. Please let us know what you think and do share the word about the podcast, the newsletter, and the Patreon.
