It's simply not Gething better....
Welcome to this month's Hiraeth Review, our latest comment and favourite content from the last month that we think will add to, or improve, understanding of matters local, national, union-wide, or international. We hope you enjoy!
There are many worn out political cliches in the land of the pulled punch. (We are not averse to them here at Hiraeth, apparently...) However, none are so well trodden as that old chestnut, that devolution is a process and not an event.
This month marked 25 years of devolution/home rule/Tony Blair's biggest mistake (choose your weapon) and the Senedd held a quite peculiar panel event to mark the occasion. More a pre-election political sparring than a collaborative and celebratory affair. Of note was evidence of Dafydd Wigley's enduring quality, Samuel Kurtz's emergence as a first class talent in the Conservative ranks, and Jane Hutt's extraordinary ability to suck the oxygen out the room when the discussion turns tricky for the Labour Party.
We also - finally - saw the passing of the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill, or as the average nerd would call it, the Senedd reform legislation. This legislation will see a larger Senedd, with 96 members being elected through a completely proportional, albeit totally mad, d’hondt based, closed list electoral system that will be particularly unfavourable to smaller parties such as the Greens, Lib Dems, and the various parties of the alternative right.
Now with more members, must come greater scrutiny, accountability and specialisation of our politicians. The legislation which has been inspired by several grand shelf-filling reports cannot be allowed to create a representative body with such a penchant for creating shelf-filling reports, much as we demanded action from our new First Minister, so must we demand action from this next Senedd. The alternative does not bear contemplating.
For an institution that has recently voted to empower itself, its position has not felt so perilous in a generation. It is an institution that seems to be struggling with new found media accountability, shrouded in scandal, policy u-turns and repeated failings in the key areas of the economy, education and health.
Despite the numerous good people who serve there, the Senedd runs the risk that if it does not begin to deliver for the people of Wales, that the 53% of people who do not vote in Senedd elections will actually turn up for once and vote for parties who will vote the place out of existence.
So buckle up. A Welsh Senedd election will be with us in less than two years.
Who will lead the likely victors (Labour - who else!) into that election? Just a few months ago there was much self-satisfied comment about Wales being the first European country to elect a black leader and little doubt around that question.
It was short-lived. As rumours emerged at the end of the leadership campaign about suspicious donations to his campaign, Vaughan Gething's short time as First Minister has been plagued by more revelations and leaks that seem designed to either undermine or even oust him from office. He seems determined to ride out the storm for now, but the question remains for the UK Party whether it is safer to carry a damaged Welsh leader into an election or the optics of replacing him with a less-tarnished character just months after his election. The other parties will not make this decision easy for Keir Starmer.
And our recommended content from elsewhere...
Echoes of 2016 - Reform to follow UKIP into the Senedd?
It may ultimately have fallen apart in acrimony and more transfers of allegiance than a Premier League transfer day, but it’s important to remember quite how successful UKIP were in the 2016 Senedd election. They returned a peculiar mix of players from the lower leagues (Nathan Gill, Caroline Jones), semi-professionals (David Rowlands), rank amateurs (Michelle Brown, Gareth Bennett), and two big name parachutists (Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless). It did not end well. The group was plagued by in-fighting, non-attendance, policy disagreements (especially with regard to support or not for devolution) and their members burned through Brexit Party, Conservative Party, Abolish the Welsh Assembly, and independent allegiances before all being soundly defeated in 2021.
But will they be back? James Heale in the Spectator thinks so, under the new guise of Reform. With the surprisingly deep support for UKIP etc, and Wales’s vote in support of Brexit, it really ought not be a surprise to anyone that they will be represented in Cardiff Bay in 2016.
Auditor General calls for a bold vision for public services in Wales
The Auditor General calls for a bold vision for public services in Wales if it is to shift from a spiral of short-term firefighting to future proofing and long-term sustainability. He has emphasised the need for a bold vision in Welsh public services. To shift away from short-term firefighting, the focus should be on long-term sustainability. The article highlights several key themes to achieve better value from existing spending:
Governance and Financial Management: Reducing costs and restoring public confidence by addressing failures in governance and financial management.
Fraud and Error: Minimizing losses due to fraud and error.
Complex Landscape: Ensuring value for money in the complex public service landscape.
Workforce Issues: Addressing long-term workforce challenges across sectors and professions.
Digital Transformation: Accelerating digital technology adoption for service transformation.
Prevention: Shifting resources toward prevention to avoid higher future costs.
Effective Decision-Making: Rigorous appraisal of decisions for value for money, backed by monitoring and evaluation of outcomes.
Who Killed Liz Truss? Britain on the Brink - The rest is money Podcast
In this episode of The Rest Is Money, the focus is on the Bank of England’s actions during Liz Truss brief PM tenure. The episode explores the possibility of the Bank of England being involved in political assassination. Did they have a hidden agenda, and how did their rescue plan impact the situation? It looks behind the scenes at the IMF who played a crucial role in global financial stability. The podcast delves into what happened behind closed doors during this crisis.
Lammy’s realism on UK’s diminished global influence
When Keir Starmer appoints his new Foreign Secretary after winning the union general election (whenever it comes - both Ceri and Richard on the pod are still awaiting to discover who wins our bet about its timing, with Matt already poorer!), the appointee will likely be current shadow, David Lammy.
A long time MP and well-known name for sure, but what is his - and Labour’s - understanding of the UK’s position on the world stage? Are we done with Johnsonion fantasies of fame and fortune to be found afloat a new Royal Yacht Britannia touring the Indo-Pacific and awash with billions of pounds of trade income from the newly deregulated Singapore-on-Thames? Clearly so. Unlike his predecessors, and sobered by the increasingly unstable and violent world order, we are clearly back in the realm of reality and Pragmatism-Upon-Thames as he sets out in his essay for Foreign Policy:
“When former prime minister Tony Blair entered Downing Street 27 years ago, the British economy was larger than India’s and China’s combined. The United Kingdom still administered a major Asian city, Hong Kong, as a colony…
Today, the global order is messy and multipolar. China has become a superpower, with an economy more than five times as large as the United Kingdom’s. But there has also been a shift in power to a wider variety of states since I was first a minister almost 19 years ago.”
The 1984-85 miners’ strike was a gamechanger for Britain. For Jonny Owen - who was 13 and growing up in South Wales - it was personal
Jonny Owen’s radio series “Strike” on BBC Radio Wales has sought to explore the 1984 / 85 Minsers strike from all angles including how it affected him an his community. In this highly personal exploration of the miners’ strike,
Owen delves into the roots of the dispute and its impact on Britain. His interviews with friends and individuals from his parents’ generation make this history feel vividly recent. Owen ecxplores the camaraderie of the pit, the realities of a hard dangerous job and the strength of the communities that the industry created.
Rivers are not protected from over-abstraction
In response to a request from Natural Resources Wales, Afonydd Cymru, as a member of the Wales Water Forum, compiled a report on the current Water Framework Directive (WFD) Process. This report represents the collective voice of the rivers trust movement in Wales. The report highlights key considerations for NRW, emphasizing the need to meet WFD requirements and address barriers to fisheries restoration and the galring issue around water quality in wales.
What are the problems? And what can be done?
Christianity in politics and the religiosity of its opponents
The recent question over whether Kate Forbes would run for the leadership of the SNP has brought us again to question of the faith of our politicians, and most importantly the way in which it impacts on their values and their policies. In this recent blog, former Hiraeth guest Nicholas Webb discusses the role faith plays as the motivator of many politicians as well as why faith should not been seen as a barrier to public life.
Neil Kinnock: The Prime Minister Labour never had
Lord Neil Kinnock - Labour leader from 1983 to 1992, Thatcher's biggest rival in her pomp, joins Lewis Goodall to discuss his political life, from the 1950s to Harold Wilson, his interactions with Jeremy Corbyn and his hopes, (or whether he has any doubts), about Sir Keir Starmer.
Health, Wealth and Work: Why People in Wales are on the Sick
In the article titled Health, Wealth and Work: Why People in Wales are on the Sick , Victoria Winckler of the Bevan Foundation sheds light on sickness in Wales and its impact on the Welsh economy. Here are the key points:
Sickness Problem: Wales faces a significant sickness problem, with 147,000 people not working due to illness – an increase of 22,500 since the pandemic began. This costs the public purse a substantial amount.
Economic Impact: The rise in economic inactivity due to sickness costs the UK an additional £16 billion annually, affecting welfare spending and tax revenues.
NHS Waiting Times: Long queues for NHS treatments, from cancer care to knee replacements, may indirectly impact labor market participation. Family members waiting for treatment can also contribute to workforce exits.
Health Foundation Forecast: By 2040, an additional 700,000 people in the UK are projected to have major illnesses. Chronic pain, diabetes complications, anxiety, and depression could lead to more people being out of work.
How healthy is democracy in Wales and how can we best measure it?
In their recent blog post, Greg Notman and Professor James Downe explore the health of democracy in Wales and propose a broader perspective for assessment beyond elections alone. Their report, commissioned by the Welsh Government and produced in partnership with the University of Southampton, emphasises the need to consider multiple dimensions when evaluating democratic health. Kay aspects they ecplore include;:
Beyond Elections: While elections are crucial, they don’t provide a complete picture of democracy. The authors advocate for a holistic approach that considers various aspects.
Six Criteria for Healthy Democracy:
Free and Fair Elections: Ensuring electoral integrity and civil rights.
Citizen Engagement: Encouraging awareness and participation.
Political Deliberation: Promoting reasoned and constructive debate.
Equality: Striving for social, economic, and balanced representation.
Responsive Government: Aligning policies with citizens’ needs.
Access to Information: Transparency through independent media and transparent government.
Local Democracy: Local governments play a vital role. Questions arise about representation, public awareness, trust, and satisfaction.
And that's it from this edition of our monthly newsletter. Please let us know what you think and do share the word about the podcast, the newsletter, and the Patreon.
